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Economic Calendar for 06/03/2011

June 3, 2011

economic claendarToday’s economic calendar includes only two reports, but one of them is the widely anticipated federal labor statistics.

The Employment Situation Report comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus forecast for non-farm payrolls calls for a gain of 150,000. Private payrolls are seen growing by 175,000. The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a household survey, is expected to drop to 8.9 percent from last month’s 9 percent.

The range for non-farm payrolls is very wide in light of this week’s disappointing ADP employment data. Estimates range from 75,000 payrolls, which would beat the ADP number by a wide margin but may still be considered bearish, to a gain of 250,000 payrolls is forecast. A reading at or above that level would be a bullish surprise.

Private payrolls have a range that is almost as wide, from a bearish 95,000 to a bullish 280,000. Forecasts for the so-called headline unemployment rate range from a bullish 8.7 percent to a bearish 9.1 percent.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be reported at 10 a.m. ET. The index is forecast to rise slightly to 54 from last month’s 52.8 reading. The range is very narrow for estimates, from 52 to 55.

A number that breaks the low end would be bearish. If the index comes in closer to the highs of the range or beyond, it would be bullish. Breaks of either end of the range will likely produce a larger market response.

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